Earthquake scaling relations, and testing and evaluation of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022.

Abstract

We summarise two projects that contributed to the development of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022). First, we summarise the development of new magnitude-source area scaling relations for crustal and subduction interface earthquakes. The relations are of the form Mw = logA + C, and based on quantitative evaluation of a suite of recently published scaling relations (post 2010). Second, we summarise efforts to test and evaluate NZ NSHM 2022. The evaluation phase involved comparisons of numerous model components against data, and the testing phase involved quantitative comparisons of predicted ground motion exceedance rates to the rates observed at accelerograph station sites around New Zealand. The testing results showed that the observed exceedance rates can be drawn from NZ NSHM 2022 with probabilities greater than 0.05, indicating overall compatibility.